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by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2021 10:17:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2021 report:

Personal income increased $93.4 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $63.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $214.3 billion (1.3 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.7 percent; goods increased 1.0 percent and services increased 0.5 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent.
emphasis added

The October PCE price index increased 5.0 percent year-over-year and the October PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.1 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and personal spending were above expectations, and the increase in the PCE price index was above expectations.