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Friday: Employment Report

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by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2022 09:01:00 PM

My May Employment Preview

Goldman May Payrolls Preview

Friday:
o At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for May. The consensus is for 320,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.5%.

o At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 56.4, down from 57.1.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID MetricsNowWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully Vaccinated66.7%—>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated (millions)221.4—>=2321New Cases per Day3100,683110,080<=5,0002Hospitalized3?21,30620,290<=3,0002Deaths per Day3244318<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.New cases have quadrupled from the recent low, and deaths are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

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