by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2022 10:46:00 AM
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.61 million SAAR in April
The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022.
Sales declined 5.9% year-over-year compared to March 2021. This was the eighth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.
A key milestone will be when inventory is up year-over-year (YoY). My current guess is inventory will be up YoY next month in the NAR report. Inventory will still be historically very low.
Also note that 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.98% in April according to Freddie Mac. Now rates are around 5.45%. Sometimes people rush to buy as rates rise – anticipating further rate increases. However, eventually, higher rates will suppress demand. It seems likely we will see a further negative impact on sales from higher rates, and more inventory in the coming months.
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