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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 3.0%


by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2022 04:35:00 PM

From BofA:

We are tracking 3.0% qoq saar for 2Q GDP. Next week’s trade data will be a big swing factor. [May 27 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

The normalization in the trade balance was even larger than our previous assumptions, and we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +2.8% (qoq ar). [May 27 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.9 percent on May 27, up from 1.8 percent on May 25. After this morning’s releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real net exports was partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment. [May 27 estimate]

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