by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2022 09:49:00 AM
The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for April last week.
This graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through April 2022.
Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse.
The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 79.0% in April 2022 – just below the record high percentage of 80.0% last October.
The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).
Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 563 thousand SAAR in September 2019.
Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.”
The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).